Is it the temperature or the population the perpetrator of COVID-19 pandemic in India?

Pai, Manju Ohri


Background: The ongoing CORONA pandemic is still spreading its wings and diving high in an exponential manner across the globe. Great efforts have been put forth to study the factors affecting its growth and prevalence like temperature, precipitation and air pressure, but still there is a need of continuous scrutiny for the factors affecting its spread. This study is aimed to study such factors taking the temperature and population density of India into account and see whether they have any effect on the spread of this pandemic.

Methods: Daily confirmed cases from all the states and a few union territories of the country were taken from the government websites from the month of February 2020 to May 2020. Robust linear mixed model fit using R (statistical software) version 3.6 statistical software was used to examine the relationship between temperature and population densities at various states and union territories of India with respect to the spread of COVID-19 infection.

Results: A positive correlation was found between the population density and the spread of COVID-19 infection. But the temperature dependence was not significantly observed by this model.

Conclusions: Our results indicate a positive correlation between the population density rather than temperature dependence of COVID-19 infection. This information will assist the government and the policy makers in making strategies to combat COVID-19 infection.


COVID-19; Pandemic; Temperature; Population Density; India

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