Implementation of machine learning model-based decision support system for healthcare professionals to predict T2DM risk using heart rate variability features

Rathod, Shashikant Rajaram; Chaskar, Uttam ; Phadke, Leena ; Patil, Chetan Kumar


Non-invasive early diabetes prediction has been gaining much premarkable over the last decade. Heart rate variability (HRV) is the only non-invasive technique that can predict the future occurrence of the disease. Early prediction of diabetes can help doctors start an early intervention. To this end, the authors have developed a computational machine learning model to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk using heart rate variability features and have evaluated its robustness against the HRV of 50 patients data. The electrocardiogram (ECG) signal of the control population (n=40) and T2DM population (n=120) have been recorded in the supine position for 5 minutes, and HRV signals have been obtained. The time domain, frequency domain, and non-linear features have been extracted from the HRV signal. A decision support system has been developed based on a machine learning algorithm. Finally, the decision support system has been validated using the HRV features of 50 patients (Control n=10 and T2DM n=40). HRV features are selected for the prediction of T2DM. The decision support system has been designed using three machine learning models: Gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), Extreme Gradient boosting (XGBoost), Categorical boosting (CatBoost), and their performance have been evaluated based on the Accuracy (ACC), Sensitivity (SEN), Specificity (SPC), Positive predicted value (PPV), Negative predicted value (NPV), False-positive rate (FPR), False-negative rate (FNR), F1 score, and Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) metrics. The CatBoost model offers the best performance outcomes, and its results have been validated on 50 patients. Thus the CatBoost model can be use as a decision support system in hospitals to predict the risk of T2DM.


Heart rate variability, Type 2 diabetes mellitus, Gradient boosting decision tree, Extreme gradient boosting, Categorical boosting

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